Miguel Cotto is set to defend his middleweight title at a catch-weight of 157 pounds against Australia’s Daniel Geale.
While many are writing off Geale (31-3, 16 KOs) with any chance of winning, it’s worth asking: why Cotto (39-4-0, 32 KOs) and his team felt they needed to contract in a more favourable weight for the fight than the normal 160 pound limit?
Geale’s stable was worried about their charge making the 157 limit.
"There was no thought in mind about not making the weight," Geale, 34, told ESPN.com after the weigh-in. "You do it. It's a lot harder and that's it, but you do it. I made it smart. I had a good team around me and we worked very hard. I was very focused. This is a huge opportunity for me, and I was not going to let it slip by and give him a way out of the fight."
Geale is no mug, he is a former two-time world champion; and has only lost convincingly to boxing’s middleweight terrorist and title-holder from Kazakhstan, Gennady Golovkin – aka GGG, or Triple G.
His other two losses were both split decisions.
There’s two things we can be certain of with this fight, one is that Geale will not be at his strongest due to the catch-weight, and that Cotto will never be a true middleweight – he is essentially fighting two weight divisions north of his natural – and this is where it could get interesting.
Cotto is a future Hall of Fame level fighter – and with his so far brilliant career that includes wins over Sugar Shane Mosley and world titles in multiple divisions - deservedly so.
But his recent two wins may just flatter to deceive - possibly.
Sergio Martinez with his bad knee appeared to underperform against Cotto and got beaten up badly, and is now staring retirement in the face. While Delvin Rodriguez, who Cotto KO’d in 3 rounds was a near nonentity.
Sky Bet has Geale a 4/1
underdog, while Cotto is favoured at 1/6
. A draw at 25/1
wouldn’t be a bad punt.
Could Geale turn out to be too big and rangy for Cotto? And has Cotto fully recovered from what was a lackluster period where he looked tired and near his end, before he tuned in with star coach Freddie Roach?
The answers to these questions are a no and yes. Cotto will likely be too good, too
aggressive, and too powerful for the Australian.
But in betting terms, it’s a good fight. Cotto could have the fight won by the sixth round.
Paddy Power are offering 12/1 on a Cotto sixth round finish
, so ten quid would see you a return of £130. Considering how easily Cotto blasted out Martinez, against a clearly lesser opponent, could be lucrative.
Should Cotto win as expected, he will face Saul Alvarez Canelo later this year, in what will undoubtedly be a fight full of exciting action.